Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities
Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-16-0286.1
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Caltabiano, Nico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cassou, Christophe;Kushnir, Yochanan;Caltabiano, Nico
年代际气候变率（DCV）和可预测性研究是跨学科的奋进，以表征，理解，属性，模拟和预测全球气候的缓慢，多年变化（例如，2000年代初全球平均气温上升的最近减缓）和区域（例如，大西洋飓风活动的年代际调制，加州或萨赫勒地区20世纪70年代至80年代的持续干旱等）鳞片这项研究仍然非常具有挑战性，尽管几十年的研究，在气候系统建模方面取得了广泛的进展，以及各种观测的可用性和覆盖范围的改进。在将这些知识应用到实际预测中仍然存在相当大的障碍。这篇短文是一篇关于DCV和可预测性的简短评论文章。基于列出的问题和优先事项，它还提出了一个统一的主题，称为遥相关性驱动因素，作为解决和构建核心DCV研究挑战的支柱。这一框架超越了对全球平均温度变化的关注，直接涉及外部（自然和人为）气候强迫和内部气候相互作用的区域影响;因此，它明确涉及社会对特定区域气候信息的需求。这样一个框架也使一个大型的国际研究社区的努力，以推进DCV的观察，表征，理解和预测的整合。作为CLIVAR DCVP研究焦点小组贡献的一部分，提供了取得进展的建议。
The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s-80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain.This short article is a succint review paper about DCV and predictability. Based on listed issues and priorities, it also proposes a unifying theme referred to as drivers of teleconnectivity as a backbone to address and structure the core DCV research challenge. This framework goes beyond a preoccupation with changes in the global mean temperature and directly addresses the regional impacts of external (natural and anthropogenic) climate forcing and internal climate interactions; it thus explicitly deals with the societal needs for region-specific climate information. Such a framework also enables the integration of efforts in a large international research community toward advancing the observation, characterization, understanding, and prediction of DCV. Recommendations to make progress are provided as part of the contribution of the CLIVAR DCVP Research Focus group.