Small islands and pandemic influenza: potential benefits and limitations of travel volume reduction as a border control measure.
Small islands and pandemic influenza: potential benefits and limitations of travel volume reduction as a border control measure.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-9-160
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发表时间：
2009-09-29
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Baker MG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eichner M;Schwehm M;Wilson N;Baker MG
一些岛屿国家的流感大流行计划中有明确的内容，即提供旅行警告和限制入境旅客。但此类限制的潜在价值尚未量化。我们开发了一个概率模型，并使用了来自已发布模型的参数（即，InfluSim）和太平洋岛屿国家和领土的旅行数据。结果表明，在有旅行数据的17个PICT中，只有6个可能以相对低传染性的病毒株（即，对于R0 = 1.5），即使在整个大流行期间实施99%的非常严格的旅行量减少。对于更具传染性的病毒株（R0 = 2.25），只有5个PICT有超过50%的概率逃脱。如果PICT旨在将大流行到来的概率保持在50%以下，则大流行期间的旅行者总数不得超过115人（R0 = 3.0）或380人（R0 = 1.5）。这些结果表明，相对较少的岛屿国家可以成功地依靠密集的旅行量限制来避免大流行性流感（或随后的浪潮）的到来。因此，大多数岛屿国家可能需要规划多种额外干预措施（例如，筛查和检疫），以提高保持无大流行或实现大流行到来的实质性延迟的可能性。
Some island nations have explicit components of their influenza pandemic plans for providing travel warnings and restricting incoming travellers. But the potential value of such restrictions has not been quantified. We developed a probabilistic model and used parameters from a published model (i.e., InfluSim) and travel data from Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs). The results indicate that of the 17 PICTs with travel data, only six would be likely to escape a major pandemic with a viral strain of relatively low contagiousness (i.e., for R0 = 1.5) even when imposing very tight travel volume reductions of 99% throughout the course of the pandemic. For a more contagious viral strain (R0 = 2.25) only five PICTs would have a probability of over 50% to escape. The total number of travellers during the pandemic must not exceed 115 (for R0 = 3.0) or 380 (for R0 = 1.5) if a PICT aims to keep the probability of pandemic arrival below 50%. These results suggest that relatively few island nations could successfully rely on intensive travel volume restrictions alone to avoid the arrival of pandemic influenza (or subsequent waves). Therefore most island nations may need to plan for multiple additional interventions (e.g., screening and quarantine) to raise the probability of remaining pandemic free or achieving substantial delay in pandemic arrival.