Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
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DOI：
10.1038/nature17145
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发表时间：
2016-03-31
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Pollard, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DeConto, Robert M.;Pollard, David
在过去的几百万年里，极地温度有时比今天稍高，然而全球平均海平面在最近的末次间冰期（13万至11.5万年前）已经高出6-9米，在上新世时期（大约300万年前）可能更高。在这两种情况下，南极冰盖都被认为是主要的贡献者，暗示着它未来的脆弱性。在这里，我们使用了一个耦合冰盖和气候动力学的模型——包括先前未被充分认识的将大气变暖与支撑冰架的水力压裂和海洋终止冰崖的结构崩塌联系起来的过程——该模型是根据上新世和末次间冰期海平面估计进行校准的，并应用于未来的温室气体排放情景。如果排放继续不减少，到2100年，南极洲有可能使海平面上升1米以上，到2500年可能使海平面上升15米以上。在这种情况下，大气变暖将很快成为冰损失的主要驱动因素，但持续的海洋变暖将使冰的恢复延迟数千年。
Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6-9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics-including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs-that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.