Post-Chornobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: Risk analysis
Post-Chornobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: Risk analysis
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DOI：
10.1667/rr3593.1
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Howe, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Likhtarov, I.;Kovgan, L.;Howe, G.
1986年4月26日，乌克兰切尔诺贝利核电站发生了迄今为止最严重的核反应堆事故。乌克兰、白俄罗斯和俄罗斯的数百万人受到放射性核素的照射，特别是I-131。从那时起，对受照射人群的各个亚群进行了研究，研究表明，甲状腺癌的大量增加与I-131照射有关。然而，由于研究的局限性，量化的风险估计是有限的，仍然需要更多的信息。我们进行了一项生态学研究，以调查在北方乌克兰三个高度污染的州的I-131甲状腺剂量和甲状腺癌诊断之间的关系。研究人口包括301，907人，他们在切尔诺贝利事故发生时年龄在1至18岁之间，居住在三个研究州的1，293个农村定居点。24%的研究人群有个体甲状腺剂量估计值，另外76%的人有“个体化”的甲状腺剂量估计值，这些估计值是根据生活在同一或附近定居点的相同年龄和性别的人的直接甲状腺测量值得出的。病例包括1990年1月至2001年12月诊断的232例甲状腺癌，所有病例均经组织学证实。剂量反应分析考虑了三个研究州进行的超声检查率的差异。估计每灰色的超额相对风险为8.0（95% CI = 4.6-15），每10，000人-年灰色的超额绝对风险估计为1.5（95% CI = 1.2-1.9）。从广义上讲，这些估计数与在受污染地区进行的其他研究以及外部辐射照射研究的结果是一致的。(c)2006年，辐射研究学会
On April 26, 1986, the worst nuclear reactor accident to date occurred at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) power plant in Ukraine. Millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were exposed to radioactive nuclides, especially I-131. Since then, research has been conducted on various subgroups of the exposed population, and it has been demonstrated that the large increase in thyroid cancer is related to the I-131 exposure. However, because of study limitations, quantified risk estimates are limited, and there remains a need for additional information. We conducted an ecological study to investigate the relationship between I-131 thyroid dose and the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in three highly contaminated oblasts in Northern Ukraine. The study population is comprised of 301,907 persons who were between the ages of 1 and 18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident and were living in 1,293 rural settlements in the three study oblasts. Twenty-four percent of the study population had individual thyroid dose estimates and the other 76% had "individualized" estimates of thyroid dose based on direct thyroid measurements taken from a person of the same age and gender living in the same or nearby settlement. Cases include 232 thyroid cancers diagnosed from January 1990 through December 2001, and all were confirmed histologically. Dose-response analyses took into account differences in the rate of ultrasound examinations conducted in the three study oblasts. The estimated excess relative risk per gray was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.6-15) and the excess absolute risk per 10,000 person-year gray was estimated to be 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2-1.9). In broad terms, these estimates are compatible with results of other studies from the contaminated areas, as well as studies of external radiation exposure. (c) 2006 by Radiation Research Society