A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources.
A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.heliyon.2015.e00043
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发表时间：
2015-11
期刊：
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Wagner C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith M;Wallace K;Lewis L;Wagner C
自然资源管理固有的高度不确定性要求规划者通常在资源匮乏的情况下进行全面的风险分析。在本文中，我们展示了一种广泛适用的、新颖的、结构化的启发方法来识别重要的直接风险因素。这种新方法结合了专家校准和基于模糊的数学，以捕获和汇总专家对一组直接风险因素导致管理失败的可能性的主观估计。使用具体案例研究来演示该方法；然而，所描述的方法广泛适用于风险分析。对于该案例研究，管理目标是保留具有一组自然生物元素特征的所有物种。该分析受到所考虑的生物元素的空间分布和 20 年时间范围的限制。预计有十四种生物元素处于危险之中。确定了十一个重要的直接风险因素，这些因素与周围的土地使用方式、气候变化、问题物种（例如野生捕食者）、火灾和水文变化有关。就其总体影响而言，两个最重要的风险因素是盐化和缺水，这两个因素共同对九种生物要素的生存构成了相当大的威胁。所描述的方法成功地克服了先前风险分析工作中出现的两个问题：（1）缺乏直观而全面的评分方法，无法检测和澄清专家协议以及相关的不确定性水平； (2) 结果可以轻松地解释和传达，同时保留对明智决策至关重要的丰富细节。
The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators), fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1) the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2) the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.