Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific
Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aba97c
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发表时间：
2020-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Yipeng Guo;Xiangbo Feng;N. Klingaman;Z. Tan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yipeng Guo;Xiangbo Feng;N. Klingaman;Z. Tan
北太平洋西部夏季气候影响人口稠密的东亚国家，而动力模式对这些地区的季节性预报仍然具有挑战性。本研究评估了春季印太暖池（IPWP） Hadley环流对英国气象局全球季节预报系统（GloSea5）夏季北太平洋西部降水预报性能的影响。GloSea5对IPWP Hadley环流预报能力较好，但对夏季WNP降水预报能力一般。与观测结果相比，春季IPWP Hadley环流与夏季WNP降水之间的显著关系在大多数后向成员和总体平均中被高估了。此外，该区域环流-降水关系越强的预报集合对夏季WNP降水的预报效果越好，说明该区域环流-降水关系对WNP降水的季节预报具有重要意义。这些结果也意味着需要进一步研究影响WNP降水的其他重要因素，这些因素的影响可能被GloSea5中高估的区域环流-降水关系所抑制。
The western North Pacific summer climate affects the densely populated East Asian countries, while seasonal forecasting over these regions remains challenging for dynamical models. This study evaluates the effect of the spring Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Hadley circulation on the forecast performance for summer western North Pacific (WNP) precipitation in the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5). GloSea5 skillfully predicts IPWP Hadley circulation, but has moderate forecast skill for summer WNP precipitation. Compared to observations, the significant relationship between the spring IPWP Hadley circulation and the summer WNP precipitation is overestimated in most hindcast members and in the ensemble mean. Furthermore, we confirmed that the forecast ensemble members with a stronger such regional circulation–precipitation relationship have better forecast performance for the summer WNP precipitation, suggesting the importance of such a relationship for the seasonal forecast of WNP precipitation. These results also imply the need to further investigate other important factors for the WNP precipitation, the effects of which may be suppressed by the overestimated regional circulation–precipitation relationship in GloSea5.