Ultra-sensitive Alpine lakes and climate change
Ultra-sensitive Alpine lakes and climate change
复制标题
超敏感的高山湖泊和气候变化
DOI：
10.4081/jlimnol.2005.139
复制
发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
R. Schmidt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Thompson;C. Kamenik;R. Schmidt
全球变暖是人类面临的主要问题之一，具有重要的生态和经济后果。高山集水区的冰盖、积雪和水温受气温控制，因此很容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，当地因素，如风暴露，阴影和雪补丁，坚持在寒冷的夏天，可以修改的敏感性的关系，空气温度。1998年至2003年期间，奥地利阿尔卑斯山中部（Niedere Tauern）45个高山湖泊中的热敏电阻每隔两小时或四小时测量一次水温。根据这些数据调整的度日模型和指数平滑模型表明，我们可以预测在未来世纪，一些Niedere Tauern湖泊的温度将大幅上升。海拔约1500至2000米的湖泊被认为是超敏感的，因为它们位于冰盖和积雪持续时间变化特别明显的海拔范围内。在更极端的情况下，我们的影响模型预测夏季上层水温上升超过10度。最有可能受到未来气候变化影响的湖泊之一是莫阿拉姆湖。这个湖位于海拔1825米处。在Niedere Tauern的北方斜坡上;它的水温可能会上升12度。在未来的世纪里，陶恩河流域的预计水量、冰盖持续时间和水温变化将远远超过过去一万年中任何阶段的变化。
Global warming is one of the major issues with which mankind is being confronted, having vital ecological and economic consequences. Ice-cover, snow-cover and water temperatures in alpine catchments are controlled by air temperatures, and so are very susceptible to shifts in climate. Local factors such as wind exposure, shading, and snow patches that persist during cold summers can, however, modify the sensitivities of the relationships to air temperature. Thermistors exposed in 45 mountain lakes of the central Austrian Alps (Niedere Tauern) measured water temperatures during 1998 – 2003 at two or four hourly intervals. Degree-day and exponential smoothing models tuned with this data suggest we can anticipate extremely large temperature rises in some of the Niedere Tauern lakes in the coming century. Lakes at around 1500 to 2000 m altitude are found to be ultra-sensitive as they lie in the elevation range where changes in both ice-cover and snow-cover duration will be particularly pronounced. In the more extreme cases, our impact models predict a summer-epilimnion water-temperature rise of over 10 degrees. One example of a lake most at risk to future climate change is Moaralmsee. This lake is located at 1825 m a.s.l. on the northern slopes of the Niedere Tauern; its water temperature is likely to rise by 12 degrees. The projected water discharge, ice-cover duration and water temperature changes for the Tauern catchments in the coming century far exceed the variations experienced at any stage during the last ten thousand years.