Sea-level-rise-induced threats depend on the size of tide-influenced estuaries worldwide
Sea-level-rise-induced threats depend on the size of tide-influenced estuaries worldwide
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0608-4
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kleinhans, Maarten G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Leuven, Jasper R. F. W.;Pierik, Harm Jan;Kleinhans, Maarten G.
海平面上升对河口未来形态功能的影响在很大程度上是未知的，因为潮汐振幅将由于河口口的加深和海上两栖点的移动而改变。河流沉积物的供应也在全球范围内减少，这阻碍了维持相对海平面高度所需的填充物。在这里，我们模拟了全球36个不同大小、形状和水动力特征的河口，发现小的浅河口和大的深河口对海平面上升的反应相反。大型河口受到沉积物缺乏的威胁，因此潮间带面积减少，特别是在河口潮汐幅度减小的情况下。相比之下，小河口面临更大的洪水风险，对海平面上升引起的加深潮汐放大更敏感。河口拓宽可以部分减轻不利影响。在大河口，潮间带面积的扩大增加了潮棱柱和有效可蚀泥沙的适应，而在小河口，潮间带面积的扩大则略微降低了潮汐放大。
The effects of sea-level rise on the future morphological functioning of estuaries are largely unknown because tidal amplitudes will change due to combined deepening of the estuary mouth and shifting amphidromic points at sea. Fluvial sediment supply is also globally decreasing, which hampers infilling necessary to maintain elevation relative to sea level. Here we model 36 estuaries worldwide with varying sizes, shapes and hydrodynamic characteristics, and find that small shallow estuaries and large deep estuaries respond in opposite ways to sea-level rise. Large estuaries are threatened by sediment starvation and therefore loss of intertidal area, particularly if tidal amplitude decreases at the mouth. In contrast, small estuaries face enhanced flood risks and are more sensitive to tidal amplification on sea-level-rise-induced deepening. Estuary widening can partly mitigate adverse effects. In large estuaries, expanded intertidal areas increase tidal prism and available erodible sediment for adaptation, whereas it slightly reduces tidal amplification in small estuaries.