Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo202
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Held, Isaac M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knutson, Thomas R.;Sirutis, Joseph J.;Held, Isaac M.
据报道，至少自1950年以来，热带大西洋海洋表面温度的升高和大西洋飓风活动的测量密切相关（参考文献1-5），这引起了人们对未来温室气体引起的变暖可能导致飓风活动显著增加的担忧。需要明确模拟飓风的模型来研究海洋温度升高对大西洋飓风活动的影响，以补充经验方法。我们的大西洋盆地区域气候模型再现了1980年至2006年期间观察到的飓风数量的增加，沿着出现了许多年际变化，当被迫与观察到的海面温度和大气条件（7）。在这里，我们在我们的模型系统中评估了全球气候模型集合预测到21世纪末发生的大尺度气候变化，发现大西洋飓风和热带风暴频率减少。与此同时，近风暴降雨率大幅增加。我们的研究结果不支持大气温室气体浓度增加导致热带风暴或飓风频率大幅增加的趋势。
Increasing sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have been reported to be strongly correlated since at least 1950 (refs 1-5), raising concerns that future greenhouse-gas-induced warming(6) could lead to pronounced increases in hurricane activity. Models that explicitly simulate hurricanes are needed to study the influence of warming ocean temperatures on Atlantic hurricane activity, complementing empirical approaches. Our regional climate model of the Atlantic basin reproduces the observed rise in hurricane counts between 1980 and 2006, along with much of the interannual variability, when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions(7). Here we assess, in our model system(7), the changes in large-scale climate that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century by an ensemble of global climate models(8), and find that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies are reduced. At the same time, near-storm rainfall rates increase substantially. Our results do not support the notion of large increasing trends in either tropical storm or hurricane frequency driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations.