A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II.
A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II.
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-7954-1-4
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发表时间：
2003-04-14
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Murray CJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barendregt JJ;Van Oortmarssen GJ;Vos T;Murray CJ
流行病学作为一门经验科学，已经开发出复杂的方法来衡量人群疾病的原因和模式。然而，对于许多国家的许多疾病，只有部分数据可用。当部分数据不足，但无法收集数据时，可以通过利用描述疾病过程的各种变量之间的因果关系来补充数据。我们提出了一个简单的通用疾病模型，包括发病率、一种流行状态、病死率和缓解情况。我们推导出一组方程来描述这种疾病过程，并允许在给定至少三个输入变量的情况下计算疾病的完整流行病学。我们以哮喘为例，以特定年龄的患病率、缓解率和死亡率作为输入。产出包括发病率和病死率等。这组方程嵌入在一个名为“DisMod II”的软件包中，该软件包由世界卫生组织向公共领域开放。
Epidemiology as an empirical science has developed sophisticated methods to measure the causes and patterns of disease in populations. Nevertheless, for many diseases in many countries only partial data are available. When the partial data are insufficient, but data collection is not an option, it is possible to supplement the data by exploiting the causal relations between the various variables that describe a disease process. We present a simple generic disease model with incidence, one prevalent state, and case fatality and remission. We derive a set of equations that describes this disease process and allows calculation of the complete epidemiology of a disease given a minimum of three input variables. We give the example of asthma with age-specific prevalence, remission, and mortality as inputs. Outputs are incidence and case fatality, among others. The set of equations is embedded in a software package called 'DisMod II', which is made available to the public domain by the World Health Organization.