Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation
Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6
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发表时间：
2022-08-15
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Kummu，Matti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chrysafi，Anna;Virkki，Vili;Kummu，Matti
由于人类的扰动，地球系统关键过程的几个安全边界已经被跨越;不考虑它们的相互作用可能会进一步缩小人类的安全操作空间。利用专家知识启发，我们探讨了七个变量之间的相互作用，代表地球系统的过程相关的粮食生产，确定了许多相互作用很少探讨地球系统的文献。我们发现，绿色水和陆地系统的变化强烈影响其他地球系统的过程，而陆地，淡水和海洋生物圈完整性的组成部分是最受影响的其他地球系统的过程，最显着的蓝水和地球化学流动。我们还绘制了一个复杂的机制网络，介导这些相互作用，并创建了一个未来的研究优先级计划的基础上的互动优势和现有的知识差距。我们的研究提高了对地球系统相互作用的理解，具有可持续性影响，包括改进地球系统建模和对未来粮食生产更明确的生物物理限制。
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.