Global-Warming Effects on New York Streamflows
Global-Warming Effects on New York Streamflows
复制标题
全球变暖对纽约水流的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Haith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Tung;D. Haith
采用日径流模型，对纽约州四个大流域的径流量进行了全球变暖的影响评估。三个不同的100年的每日天气序列输入到模型中。第一个是使用当前（1961-90）天气记录的统计数据。第二和第三个序列是基于这些历史统计的修改，根据月平均温度和降水量的变化与加倍的大气CO2的两个不同的大气环流模式预测。对于2 × CO2条件，所有四个流域的平均年水平衡表明降水量略有减少（1-9%），但由于蒸散量增加，流量减少幅度要大得多（16-42%）。冬季流量普遍增加，但在其余季节流量往往减少。月径流量的变化有很大的不同流域，我们不能把这些变化归因于土地利用或土壤的具体差异。
Impacts of global warming on streamflows were estimated for four large watersheds in New York State using a daily streamflow model. Three different 100-yr daily weather sequences were input to the model. The first was produced using statistics of current (1961–90) weather records. The second and third sequences were based on modifications of these historic statistics according to the monthly mean temperature and precipitation changes associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 as predicted by two different general circulation models. For 2 × CO 2 conditions, mean annual water balances for all four watersheds indicated modest (1–9%) decreases in precipitation, but much larger (16–42%) decreases in streamflow due to increases in evapotranspiration. Winter flows generally increased, but flows in the remaining seasons often decreased. Monthly streamflow changes varied considerably among watersheds, and we could not attribute these changes to specific differences in land uses or soils.