HOW CAN THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER BE SMALL AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND?
HOW CAN THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER BE SMALL AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND?
复制标题
政府支出乘数怎么会小到零下限呢？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
João Valle e Azevedo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Ercolani;João Valle e Azevedo
最近的一些经验证据对名义利率为零时政府支出乘数通常很大的规模提出了质疑，发现产出乘数约为1甚至更低，在某些情况下上限约为1.5。在本文中，我们使用最近的估计，私人和政府消费之间的替代程度，否则标准的新凯恩斯主义模型表明，这一渠道显着降低了政府支出乘数的大小时，名义利率为零。在其他条件相同的情况下，可替代性的关系使得政府支出冲击挤出私人消费，同时通货膨胀较小，从而限制了真实的利率下降的典型扩张效应。受名义利率被限制在零，该模型产生的产出乘数范围从0.8到1.6。
Some recent empirical evidence questions the typically large size of government spending multipliers when the nominal interest rate is stuck at zero, finding output multipliers of around 1 or even lower, with an upper bound of around 1.5 in some circumstances. In this paper, we use a recent estimate of the degree of substitutability between private and government consumption in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to show that this channel significantly reduces the size of government spending multipliers obtained when the nominal interest rate is at zero. All else being equal, the relationship of substitutability makes a government spending shock crowd out private consumption while being less inflationary, thus, limiting the typically expansionary effect of the fall in the real interest rate. Subject to the nominal interest rate being constrained at zero, the model generates output multipliers ranging from 0.8 to 1.6.