Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast
Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiw375
复制
发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Del Valle, Sara Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moran, Kelly R.;Fairchild, Geoffrey;Del Valle, Sara Y.
数学模型，例如预测流行病传播或预测天气的模型，必须克服在计算机模拟中整合不完整和不准确数据的挑战，估计多种可能情况的概率，纳入人类行为和/或病原体的变化以及环境因素。在过去的30年里，天气预报界在数据收集方面取得了重大进展，将异构数据流同化到模型中，并将其预测的不确定性传达给公众。流行病建模者在预测寨卡病毒感染和埃博拉病毒病等新兴疾病的传播时也面临着同样的问题。虽然天气模型依赖于物理系统、卫星数据和气象站，但流行病模型依赖于人类互动、临床监测和互联网数据等多个数据源以及可能改变病原体动态的环境或生物因素。我们描述了这两个领域之间的一些相似性和差异，以及流行病建模社区如何应对预测带来的挑战，以帮助预测和指导流行病的缓解。我们的结论是，这两个领域之间的一些根本差异，如人类行为，使疾病预测比天气预报更具挑战性。
Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.