A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment
A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment
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DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3878(02)00089-5
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发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kalemli-Ozcan, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalemli-Ozcan, S
本文探讨了生育率和人力资本投资之间的关系及其对经济增长的影响，重点是死亡率下降的影响。与现有的文献不同，本文强调了存活儿童数量的不确定性的作用。如果存活儿童的边际效用是凸的，那么对儿童的预防性需求就会存在。随着死亡率和不确定性的下降，这种需求也会减少。此外，较低的死亡率鼓励对儿童进行教育投资。关键的结果是，只有当不确定性被纳入个人的优化问题，这种经验观察到的质量-数量权衡实现。(C)2002 Elsevier Science B.V保留所有权利。
This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment and its implications for economic growth, focusing on the effects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. If the marginal utility of a surviving child is convex, then there will be a precautionary demand for children. As the mortality rate and thus, uncertainty fall, this demand decreases. Furthermore, lower mortality encourages educational investment in children. The key result is that this empirically observed quality-quantity trade-off is realized only if uncertainty is incorporated into individual's optimization problem. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.