Time of Emergence of Surface Ocean Carbon Dioxide Trends in the North American Coastal Margins in Support of Ocean Acidification Observing System Design
Time of Emergence of Surface Ocean Carbon Dioxide Trends in the North American Coastal Margins in Support of Ocean Acidification Observing System Design
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DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2019.00091
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发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
D. Turk;Hongjie Wang;Xinping Hu;D. Gledhill;Zhaohui Aleck Wang;Li‐Qing Jiang;W. Cai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Turk;Hongjie Wang;Xinping Hu;D. Gledhill;Zhaohui Aleck Wang;Li‐Qing Jiang;W. Cai
出现时间（Time of Emergence, ToE）是指信号从自然变化的噪声中出现的时间。这一概念通常用于气候科学中对人为强迫的探测，最近已被应用于地球化学变量，利用全球气候和地球系统模式评估主要发生在开放海洋的人为海洋酸化（OA）的出现时间。然而，由于碳参数的多年时间序列观测有限，对沿海边缘OA变量的研究很少。ToE为观测资产的战略配置决策提供了重要信息，以确保它们处于信号检测和/或过程启发的最佳位置，并在识别oa相关变化时确定最合适的变量。本文简要概述了利用表层海洋CO2地图集（SOCAT） V5的沿海数据，对北美海洋边缘OA变量CO2逸度系数（CO2,sw）的ToE估计。ToE表明OA信号出现的平均理论时间框架为23（±13）年，但具有相当大的空间变异性。大多数沿海地区正在经历额外的改变OA信号的长期和/或多年代际强迫，而这种强迫可能无法通过当前观测得到充分解决。我们提供的建议将帮助科学家和决策者在未来十年设计和实施OA监测系统，以实现OceanObs19的目标，以支持联合国海洋科学促进可持续发展十年（2021-2030）和可持续发展目标（SDG） 14.3“最大限度地减少和应对OA的影响”。
Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time when a signal emerges from the noise of natural variability. Commonly used in climate science for the detection of anthropogenic forcing, this concept has recently been applied to geochemical variables to assess the emerging times of anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA) mostly in the open ocean using global climate and Earth System Models. Yet studies of OA variables are scarce within costal margins, due to limited multidecadal time-series observations of carbon parameters. ToE provides important information for decision making regarding strategic configuration of observing assets to ensure they are optimally positioned either for signal detection and/or process elicitation and to identify the most suitable variables in discerning OA-related changes. Herein, we present a short overview of ToE estimates on an OA variable, CO2 fugacity ƒ(CO2,sw), in the North American ocean margins using coastal data from Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) V5. ToE suggests an average theoretical timeframe for an OA signal to emerge of 23(±13) years, but with considerable spatial variability. Most coastal areas are experiencing additional secular and/or multi-decadal forcing(s) that modifies the OA signal, and such forcing may not be sufficiently resolved by current observations. We provide recommendations that will help scientists and decision makers design and implement OA monitoring systems in the next decade addressing the objectives of OceanObs19 in support of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.3 Target to “Minimize and address the impacts of OA ”.