Between a rock and a hard place: the impacts of climate change and housing development on breeding birds in California
Between a rock and a hard place: the impacts of climate change and housing development on breeding birds in California
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10980-012-9825-1
复制
发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wiens, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jongsomjit, Dennis;Stralberg, Diana;Wiens, John
虽然气候变化对物种分布的影响已受到相当大的关注，但土地使用的变化继续威胁着野生动物，因为它造成了生境的丧失和退化。我们比较了气候变化和住房开发对加州鸟类的一系列住房密度的预计空间影响，以评估各自的相对潜在影响。我们使用的物种分布模型与当前和未来的气候预测和空间明确的住房开发密度预测在加州。我们比较了它们对代表6个主要植被群落的64种重点鸟类分布的潜在影响。对气候变化作出积极反应的物种预计将增加253，890平方公里，对气候变化作出消极反应的物种预计将减少335，640平方公里。在预计的物种分布总体减少量中，发展占32%。就土地面积而言，郊区和远郊开发占土地利用对物种分布影响的最大部分。气候适宜性和住房密度预计都将增加的地区集中在沿着内华达州山麓和北海岸地区。气候适宜性下降和住房密度增加的地区主要集中在中央谷。我们的分析表明，未来住房开发和气候变化的累积效应对许多鸟类物种来说将是巨大的，一些物种预计将随着气候变化扩大其分布，实际上可能会失去发展的基础。这表明，一项关键的气候变化适应战略将是最大限度地减少住房开发的影响。为了有效地做到这一点，需要在更广泛的气候变化范围内制定指导土地使用决策的综合政策。
Although the effects of climate change on species distributions have received considerable attention, land-use change continues to threaten wildlife by contributing to habitat loss and degradation. We compared projected spatial impacts of climate change and housing development across a range of housing densities on California's birds to evaluate the relative potential impacts of each. We used species-distribution models in concert with current and future climate projections and spatially explicit housing-development density projections in California. We compared their potential influence on the distributions of 64 focal bird species representing six major vegetation communities. Averaged across GCMs, species responding positively to climate change were projected to gain 253,890 km 2 and species responding negatively were projected to lose 335,640 km(2). Development accounted for 32 % of the overall reductions in projected species distributions. In terms of land area, suburban and exurban development accounted for the largest portion of land-use impacts on species' distributions. Areas in which climatic suitability and housing density were both projected to increase were concentrated along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and areas of the north coast. Areas of decreasing climatic suitability and increasing housing density were largely concentrated within the Central Valley. Our analyses suggest that the cumulative effects of future housing development and climate change will be large for many bird species, and that some species projected to expand their distributions with climate change may actually lose ground to development. This suggests that a key climate change adaptation strategy will be to minimize the impacts of housing development. To do this effectively, comprehensive policies to guide land use decisions are needed at the broader scales of climate change.