Cold Air Formation and Advection over Eurasia during “Dzud” Cold Disaster Winters in Mongolia
Cold Air Formation and Advection over Eurasia during “Dzud” Cold Disaster Winters in Mongolia
复制标题
蒙古“Dzud”寒冬期间欧亚大陆上空的冷空气形成与平流
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-016-2683-4
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
M. E. Hori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iijima;Y.;M. E. Hori
近年来，由于冷空气平流，欧亚大陆上空出现了较大的负温异常。在2009/2010年冬季，中亚和中国大量降雪，再加上强冷空气的爆发，导致蒙古牲畜死亡率极高。本文从地面冷空气平流、积累和破碎过程等方面考察了欧亚大陆的地表逆温发展过程。气象分析显示，在过去十年中，从北极到西伯利亚西部的降雪和随后的冷空气平流出现了提前的趋势，这可能是在蒙古隆冬观测到的持续增强的地表冷却的驱动因素。气旋被证明是冬季开始时提前降雪的驱动因素，随后冷空气从北极迁移，因此是理解和预测持续地表冷却的频率和强度的关键，而持续地表冷却是蒙古“暴风雪”寒冷灾害的实质性物理前兆。
Large negative temperature anomalies due to cold air advection have been observed over the Eurasian continent in recent years. During the 2009/2010 winter, a large amount of snow accumulated across Central Asia and China, which along with a strong cold air outbreak, resulted in extremely high livestock mortality in Mongolia. The present study examined the surface inversion development over the Eurasian continent in terms of the cold air advection, accumulation, and breaking processes at ground level. Meteorological analyses shown trends toward earlier onsets of snow and subsequent cold air advection from the Arctic through western Siberia during the last decade, which is a possible driver of the persistent enhanced surface cooling observed in mid-winter in Mongolia. Cyclones are shown to be drivers of early snowfall onset at the beginning of winter and the subsequent migration of cold air from the Arctic, and are thus the key to understanding and predicting the frequency and intensity of persistent surface cooling, which is a substantial physical precursor for the cold disaster in Mongolia “dzud.”