AGE-SPECIFIC INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE - A STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE
AGE-SPECIFIC INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE - A STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE
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DOI：
10.2307/2983150
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发表时间：
1991-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
KEIDING, N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
KEIDING, N
在流行病学中，发病率是指（疾病）新病例的发生率，而患病率是指（患病人群）人群中的频率。从统计学的角度来看，了解参数空间中的发病率和患病率、发病率作为强度（危害）和患病率作为概率，并通过统计模型将可观察到的数量与这些量联系起来是有用的。在本文中，这样的框架基于通过年龄方向上的简单三态随机过程对 Lexis 图中每个个体的动态进行建模，并从时间方向上的泊松过程中招募个体。由此产生的横断面人口分布可以对特定年龄发病率和患病率之间的相互作用以及流行病学横断面数据的统计分析进行严格讨论。对于后者，本文重点关注现代非参数连续时间生存分析的方法，包括随机审查和截断模型以及单调性约束下的估计。阐述通过例子进行说明，主要来自作者的流行病学经验。
In epidemiology incidence denotes the rate of occurrence of new cases (of disease), while prevalence is the frequency in the population (of diseased people). From a statistical point of view it is useful to understand incidence and prevalence in the parameter space, incidence as intensity (hazard) and prevalence as probability, and to relate observable quantities to these via a statistical model. In this paper such a framework is based on modelling each individual's dynamics in the Lexis diagram by a simple three-state stochastic process in the age direction and recruiting individuals from a Poisson process in the time direction. The resulting distributions in the cross-sectional population allow a rigorous discussion of the interplay between age-specific incidence and prevalence as well as of the statistical analysis of epidemiological cross-sectional data. For the latter, this paper focuses on methods from modern nonparametric continuous time survival analysis, including random censoring and truncation models and estimation under monotonicity constraints. The exposition is illustrated by examples, primarily from the author's epidemiological experience.