HOW MUCH DO EXPORTS CONTRIBUTE TO CHINA'S INCOME GROWTH?
HOW MUCH DO EXPORTS CONTRIBUTE TO CHINA'S INCOME GROWTH?
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DOI：
10.1080/09535314.2012.660746
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发表时间：
2012-08
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Jiansuo Pei;J. Oosterhaven;E. Dietzenbacher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiansuo Pei;J. Oosterhaven;E. Dietzenbacher
人们普遍认为，出口，尤其是“高科技”产品，对中国收入增长的贡献很大。本研究通过对输入输出（I-O）数据进行结构分解分析来解决这一问题。我们使用两个扩展的I-O表来区分加工贸易和普通出口。研究发现，当使用标准的出口产出值表而不是扩展的出口产出值表时，2002 - 2007年出口对增加值增长的贡献被高估了32%。更引人注目的是，可能归因于“高科技”电信产品出口的增值增长被高估了不少于63%。严重高估某些产品（如高科技产品）对收入增长的贡献，会向政策制定者发出误导性信号。如果测量正确，真正的贡献似乎比通常认为的要小得多。
It is a widespread belief that exports, in particular of ‘high-tech’ products, contribute much to China's income growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data. We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’ telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%. A serious overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially smaller than is generally believed to be.