Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design
Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00827.x
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
McCarthy, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Halpern, BS;Regan, HM;McCarthy, MA
生态系统以及其中的物种和群落是高度复杂的系统，任何程度的确定性都无法预测。面对不确定性，管理和保护这些系统仍然是一项艰巨的挑战，特别是在发展海洋保护区网络方面。在这里，我们回顾了几个明确承认和纳入不确定性的建模框架，然后在考虑到幼虫扩散距离的不确定性水平不断增加的情况下，使用这些方法来评估保留间距规则。我们的方法发现了与其他地方提出的类似的间距规则（大约 20-200 公里），但强调了不确定性模型相对于更传统的估计方法所提供的几个优势。特别是，我们认为不确定性建模可以允许（1）基于假设的不确定性评估与任何决策相关的风险； (2) 量化减少不确定性的成本和收益的方法； (3) 一个有用的工具，用于向利益相关者传达管理高度不确定系统的挑战。我们还认为，纳入而不是避免不确定性将增加成功实现保护和管理目标的机会。
Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.