Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts
Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0609122104
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Dobson, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hampson, Katie;Dushoff, Jonathan;Dobson, Andy
狂犬病是一种致命的神经病原体，在发展中国家一直是个持续存在的问题，在这些国家它主要由家犬传播。尽管该疾病在欧洲和北美的野生动物种群中已被广泛研究，但家犬种群中狂犬病的动态几乎完全被忽视。在此，我们证明非洲南部和东部的狂犬病流行周期为3 - 6年，并且在该地区呈现出显著的同步性。观察到的周期比基于家犬狂犬病流行病学参数的预测要短。我们发现有证据表明包括疫苗接种在内的狂犬病预防措施受到疾病流行程度的影响，并表明一个带有干预反应的简单模型可以捕捉到观察到的疾病周期性和宿主动态。我们认为，感染或潜伏动物的移动加上协调的控制措施可能在连接种群以及在大陆范围内产生同步性方面具有重要作用。这些发现对狂犬病的预测和控制具有重要意义：大规模的同步性以及干预反应的重要性表明，在非洲控制犬类狂犬病将需要跨越政治边界进行协调的持续努力。
Rabies is a fatal neurological pathogen that is a persistent problem throughout the developing world where it is spread primarily by domestic dogs. Although the disease has been extensively studied in wildlife populations in Europe and North America, the dynamics of rabies in domestic dog populations has been almost entirely neglected. Here, we demonstrate that rabies epidemics in southern and eastern Africa cycle with a period of 3-6 years and show significant synchrony across the region. The observed period is shorter than predictions based on epidemiological parameters for rabies in domestic dogs. We find evidence that rabies prevention measures, including vaccination, are affected by disease prevalence and show that a simple model with intervention responses can capture observed disease periodicity and host dynamics. We suggest that movement of infectious or latent animals combined with coordinated control responses may be important in coupling populations and generating synchrony at the continental scale. These findings have important implications for rabies prediction and control: large-scale synchrony and the importance of intervention responses suggest that control of canine rabies in Africa will require sustained efforts coordinated across political boundaries.