Mechanistic Modeling of Marsh Seedling Establishment Provides a Positive Outlook for Coastal Wetland Restoration Under Global Climate Change
Mechanistic Modeling of Marsh Seedling Establishment Provides a Positive Outlook for Coastal Wetland Restoration Under Global Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl095596
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发表时间：
2021-11-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Bouma, Tjeerd J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Zhan;Borsje, Bas W.;Bouma, Tjeerd J.
虽然许多研究集中在气候变化下沿海湿地的持续性，但缺乏对新湿地建立的类似预测，尽管这对恢复至关重要。最近的实验表明，沼泽幼苗的建立是由床层动态和幼苗根系稳定性的物理干扰之间的平衡驱动的。利用机器学习，我们定量地将这些发现转化为一个新的生态模型来评估沼泽的建立程度。该模型进行了验证，对多年的观察，在荷兰和中国的典型地点的自然幼苗扩展事件。随后，合成建模实验强调，幼苗扩展主要由可控的当地条件（例如，沉积物供应、局部波高和潮滩水深测量）而不是不可控制的气候变化因素（例如，海平面和全球波浪状况的变化）。因此，尽管全球气候变化，以科学为基础的地方管理措施可以促进沿海湿地的恢复，为在类似压力下管理各种沿海生态系统带来希望。简明语言摘要气候变化下沿海湿地的脆弱性由于其宝贵的服务而受到全球关注。因此，恢复沿海湿地具有广泛的重要性。然而，控制湿地植被建立的关键过程并不清楚，直到最近的现场和实验室实验中使用沼泽作为一个示范系统。在目前的研究中，我们将这些最新研究的见解转化为一个新的地貌模型来预测景观尺度上的沼泽建立程度。综合模型分析强调，可控的当地条件比不可控的气候变化压力源更重要，从而为未来的沿海湿地生态系统提供了积极的前景。
While many studies focus on the persistence of coastal wetlands under climate change, similar predictions are lacking for new wetland establishment, despite being critical to restoration. Recent experiments revealed that marsh seedling establishment is driven by a balance between physical disturbance of bed-level dynamics and seedling root stability. Using machine learning, we quantitatively translate such finding in a new biogeomorphic model to assess marsh establishment extent. This model was validated against multiyear observations of natural seedling-expansion events at typical sites in the Netherlands and China. Subsequently, synthetic modeling experiments underscored that seedling expansion was primarily determined by controllable local conditions (e.g., sediment supply, local wave height, and tidal flat bathymetry) rather than uncontrollable climate change factors (e.g., change in sea-level and global wave regime). Thus, science-based local management measures can facilitate coastal wetland restoration, despite global climate change, shedding hope for managing a variety of coastal ecosystems under similar stresses.Plain Language Summary Vulnerability of coastal wetlands under climate changes is of global concern due to their valuable services. Thus, restoring coastal wetlands is of widespread importance. However, the key processes controlling wetland vegetation establishment are not clear until recent field and laboratory experiments using marshes as an exemplary system. In the current study, we translate the insights of these recent studies into a new biogeomorphic model to predict marsh establishment extent on a landscape scale. Synthetical model analysis underlines that controllable local conditions are much more important than uncontrollable climate change stressors, thus providing a positive outlook for future coastal wetland restorations.