The Ongoing Need for High-Resolution Regional Climate Models: Process Understanding and Stakeholder Information
The Ongoing Need for High-Resolution Regional Climate Models: Process Understanding and Stakeholder Information
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-19-0113.1
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Zarzycki, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gutowski, W. J., Jr.;Ullrich, P. A.;Zarzycki, C.
区域气候模拟解决了我们理解和模拟全球模式中未解决的气候过程和现象的需求。本文重点介绍了区域气候模拟的当前方法和创新用途的例子，这些方法和创新用途加深了对气候系统的理解。高分辨率模式通常更擅长模拟极端情况，如强降水、强风和强风暴。此外，研究表明，细尺度特征，如山脉，海岸线，湖泊，灌溉，土地使用和城市热岛可以大大影响一个地区的气候及其对不断变化的强迫的反应。区域气候模拟明确地模拟对流，现在正在进行，提供了一个机会，照亮新的物理行为，以前是由参数化与大的不确定性。随着计算能力的增加，区域和全球模型都在向更高分辨率发展。然而，在全球模型中产生这些过程的足够统计样本所需的分辨率和系综大小对于当代超级计算系统来说已经证明过于昂贵。因此，区域气候模型是不可或缺的工具，可以补充全球模型，以了解控制区域气候变异性和变化的物理过程。更深入地了解区域气候过程也有利于利益攸关方和政策制定者，他们需要实际可靠的高分辨率气候信息来指导社会应对气候变化。关键的科学问题将继续需要区域气候模型，解决这些问题的机会正在出现。
Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. This paper highlights examples of current approaches to and innovative uses of regional climate modeling that deepen understanding of the climate system. High-resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region's climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding physical processes governing regional climate variability and change. The deeper understanding of regional climate processes also benefits stakeholders and policymakers who need physically robust, high-resolution climate information to guide societal responses to changing climate. Key scientific questions that will continue to require regional climate models, and opportunities are emerging for addressing those questions.