Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the CESM high-resolution decadal prediction system
Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the CESM high-resolution decadal prediction system
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00444-w
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Who M. Kim;S. Yeager;G. Danabasoglu;P. Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Who M. Kim;S. Yeager;G. Danabasoglu;P. Chang
黑潮延伸对气候和海洋生态系统有着深远的影响。因此，熟练的多年到十年的KE状态预测和了解技能的来源是有价值的。使用高分辨率社区地球系统模型（CESM）的回顾性预测显示，在预测第4年以前的KE变率方面具有卓越的技能，大大高于类似配置的低分辨率CESM的技能。由于高分辨率系统可以更真实地模拟北太平洋中部初始化海洋异常的西向罗斯比波传播及其在尖锐的KE锋中的表达，并且不会受到低分辨率CESM中日本附近存在的干扰入射波传播的伪变率的影响，因此获得了更高的技巧。这些结果支持在未来的研究中使用高分辨率模型来预测西部边界洋流系统和相关生物学领域的变化。
The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has far-reaching influences on climate as well as on local marine ecosystems. Thus, skillful multi-year to decadal prediction of the KE state and understanding sources of skill are valuable. Retrospective forecasts using the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) show exceptional skill in predicting KE variability up to lead year 4, substantially higher than the skill found in a similarly configured low-resolution CESM. The higher skill is attained because the high-resolution system can more realistically simulate the westward Rossby wave propagation of initialized ocean anomalies in the central North Pacific and their expression within the sharp KE front, and does not suffer from spurious variability near Japan present in the low-resolution CESM that interferes with the incoming wave propagation. These results argue for the use of high-resolution models for future studies that aim to predict changes in western boundary current systems and associated biological fields.