Spatiotemporal Variations and Uncertainty in Crop Residue Burning Emissions over North China Plain: Implication for Atmospheric CO2 Simulation
Spatiotemporal Variations and Uncertainty in Crop Residue Burning Emissions over North China Plain: Implication for Atmospheric CO2 Simulation
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DOI：
10.3390/rs13193880
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yu Fu;Hao Gao;H. Liao;X. Tian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yu Fu;Hao Gao;H. Liao;X. Tian
农作物秸秆焚烧产生的温室气体和气溶胶排放量的估算存在较大的不确定性，这可能是量化农业火灾对区域空气质量影响的不确定性的主要来源。采用基于植被、基于火烧面积和基于火辐射功率的方法，对华北平原农作物秸秆焚烧排放及其不确定性进行了研究。生物质燃烧排放对大气中二氧化碳（CO2）的影响，还研究了使用全球化学传输模式（GEOS-Chem）模拟。农作物秸秆焚烧排放量在6月份最高，其次是10月份，这是NCP主要作物的收获时间。2003 - 2019年秸秆焚烧CO2排放量年际变化较大，2003 - 2012年增长较快，2013 - 2019年显著下降，表明近年来大气质量控制计划的效果。通过蒙特卡罗模拟，每个估计的不确定性进行了量化，从20%到70%的区域一级的二氧化碳排放量。在空间不确定性方面，研究发现，在小型农业火灾区，农作物秸秆燃烧排放具有高度不确定性，最大变化可达140%。而在农业火灾多发地区，华北平原南部地区，网格化水平上的变异系数大多在30%~ 100%之间。生物质燃烧排放的变化可能会导致地表CO2浓度的变化，在收获时间在NCP超过1.0 ppmv。这项研究的结果突出了量化的不确定性的生物质燃烧排放量的建模研究的意义，作物残体燃烧排放量的变化可能会影响排放驱动的二氧化碳和空气污染物的增加在夏季污染事件在该地区的很大一部分。
Large uncertainty exists in the estimations of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions from crop residue burning, which could be a key source of uncertainty in quantifying the impact of agricultural fire on regional air quality. In this study, we investigated the crop residue burning emissions and their uncertainty in North China Plain (NCP) using three widely used methods, including statistical-based, burned area-based, and fire radiative power-based methods. The impacts of biomass burning emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) were also examined by using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation. The crop residue burning emissions were found to be high in June and followed by October, which is the harvest times for the main crops in NCP. The estimates of CO2 emission from crop residue burning exhibits large interannual variation from 2003 to 2019, with rapid growth from 2003 to 2012 and a remarkable decrease from 2013 to 2019, indicating the effects of air quality control plans in recent years. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty of each estimation was quantified, ranging from 20% to 70% for CO2 emissions at the regional level. Concerning spatial uncertainty, it was found that the crop residue burning emissions were highly uncertain in small agricultural fire areas with the maximum changes of up to 140%. While in the areas with large agricultural fire, i.e., southern parts of NCP, the coefficient of variation mostly ranged from 30% to 100% at the gridded level. The changes in biomass burning emissions may lead to a change of surface CO2 concentration during the harvest times in NCP by more than 1.0 ppmv. The results of this study highlighted the significance of quantifying the uncertainty of biomass burning emissions in a modeling study, as the variations of crop residue burning emissions could affect the emission-driven increases in CO2 and air pollutants during summertime pollution events by a substantial fraction in this region.