Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones
Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7
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发表时间：
2020-07-03
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Yeung, Laurence Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hassanzadeh, Pedram;Lee, Chia-Ying;Yeung, Laurence Y.
热带气旋（TC）的移动，特别是在登陆时，会对所造成的损害产生重大影响。最近，TC翻译速度的趋势和哈维等TC停滞的可能性受到了极大的关注，但研究结果仍然没有定论。在这里，我们研究如何在未来的人为气候变化下，6月至9月的转向风和翻译速度的登陆得克萨斯州TC的变化。使用几个大的合奏/多模式数据集，我们发现显着的区域变化的纬向转向风响应在北美，但是？在不同的模型中，？6月至9月，德克萨斯州上空的平均偏北转向风较强。每日风模式的聚类分析显示，更频繁的环流制度，引导登陆TC在未来向北。降尺度实验表明，在未来的移动速度分布的缓慢移动到快速移动端的10个移动点的位移。总之，这些分析表明，在21（st）世纪后期，快速移动登陆德克萨斯州TC的可能性增加。气候变化如何影响热带气旋的移动速度一直是激烈辩论的主题。在这里，作者使用模型来显示，未来的区域变化，在转向风导致更快移动的热带气旋，因为他们在得克萨斯州登陆。
The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but?consistently across models?stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21(st) century. How climate change affects the translation speed of tropical cyclones has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors use models to show that future regional changes in the steering winds lead to faster-moving tropical cyclones as they make landfall in Texas.