Modeling the runoff and glacier mass balance in a small watershed on the Central Tibetan Plateau, China, from 1955 to 2008
Modeling the runoff and glacier mass balance in a small watershed on the Central Tibetan Plateau, China, from 1955 to 2008
复制标题
对 1955 年至 2008 年中国青藏高原中部一个小流域的径流和冰川质量平衡进行建模
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.8256
复制
发表时间：
2012-05-30
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Pu, Jianchen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Hongkai;He, Xiaobo;Pu, Jianchen
青藏高原冰川在该地区的流域水文中占有重要地位。然而，我们对这个偏远地区的水循环的了解却很少。利用HBV light模型，采用度日模型模拟冰川融化过程，对青藏高原长江源头东克玛底河流域（DRB）的总径流、冰川径流和冰川物质平衡进行了模拟。首先，利用1955 - 2008年青藏铁路沿线4个国家气象站的逐日气象观测资料（2005 - 2008年），采用统计方法得到青藏铁路沿线1955 - 2008年的逐日气温和降水量。其次，我们使用4年的每日气温，降水量，径流深度和月蒸发量，这是在DRB观测，作为输入，以获得一组合适的参数。然后，使用HBV模型计算了年径流量、冰川径流量和GMB（1955 - 2008）。计算的GMB与观测结果吻合良好。最后，利用气候模式预测的气温和降水量，预测了未来40年内DRB的径流深和GMB的变化。年在所有气候变化情景下，由于冰融化加剧，冰川年径流量显着增加。版权所有（c）2011约翰威利父子有限公司
The glaciers on Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the catchment hydrology of this region. However, our knowledge with respect to water circulation in this remote area is scarce. In this study, the HBV light model, which adopts the degree-day model for glacial melting, was employed to simulate the total runoff, the glacier runoff and glacier mass balance (GMB) of the Dongkemadi River Basin (DRB) at the headwater of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau, China. Firstly, the daily temperature and precipitation of the DRB from 1955 to 2008 were obtained by statistical methods, based on daily meteorological data observed in the DRB (20052008) and recorded by four national meteorological stations near the DRB (19552008). Secondly, we used 4-year daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth and monthly evaporation, which were observed in the DRB, as input to obtain a set of proper parameters. Then, the annual runoff, the glacier runoff and GMB (19552008) were calculated using the HBV model driven by interpolated meteorological data. The calculated GMB fits well with the observed results. At last, using the temperature and precipitation predicted by climate models, we predicted the changes of runoff depth and GMB of the DRB in the next 40?years. Under all climate-change scenarios, annual glacier runoff shows a significant increase due to intensified ice melting. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.