Refining real-time predictions of Vibrio vulnificus concentrations in a tropical urban estuary by incorporating dissolved organic matter dynamics
Refining real-time predictions of Vibrio vulnificus concentrations in a tropical urban estuary by incorporating dissolved organic matter dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154075
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发表时间：
2022-03-24
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Nelson, Craig E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bullington, Jessica A.;Golder, Abigail R.;Nelson, Craig E.
夏威夷欧胡岛南岸是美国游客最多的沿海旅游区之一，也是娱乐性水源性疾病发病率最高的地区之一。创伤弧菌种群生活在火奴鲁鲁人口稠密的旅游中心怀基基周围的阿拉围运河河口。我们开发了一个统计模型，利用系泊海洋和大气传感器的环境测量数据，实时预测创伤弧菌的动态。在长达一年的调查中，我们利用溶血素A基因(VvhA)的定量聚合酶链式反应(QPCR)对运河沿线3个深度8个地点的9个采样事件(n=213)的36个生物地球化学指标和创伤弧菌浓度进行了分析。创伤弧菌浓度的最佳多元线性回归模型仅包含6个预测因子：采样前5天平均降雨量、日最高气温、水温、硝酸盐+亚硝酸盐和腐殖质溶解有机物(DOM)两个指标，可解释80%的变异。我们展示了如何将这些模型应用于太平洋岛屿海洋观测系统(PacIOOS)的水质测量时间序列以及基于Waikiki区域海洋模拟系统(ROMS)产品的PacIOOS羽流模型，来实时预测创伤弧菌的浓度。这些应用突出了在创伤弧菌预测模型中包括DOM变量的重要性，以及降雨事件在提高创伤弧菌近岸浓度方面的影响。长期气候模型对当地缩减的月降雨量和气温的预测被用来预测到2100年创伤弧菌的总体浓度将增加约2-3倍。改进这些微生物种群预测模型对于管理水传播病原体风险暴露至关重要，特别是在全球气候变化之后。
The south shore of O`ahu, Hawai`i is one of the most visited coastal tourism areas in the United States with some of the highest instances of recreational waterborne disease. A population of the pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus lives in the estuarine Ala Wai Canal in Honolulu which surrounds the heavily populated tourism center of Waikiki. We developed a statistical model to predict V. vulnificus dynamics in this system using environmental measurements from moored oceanographic and atmospheric sensors in real time. During a year-long investigation, we analyzed water from 9 sampling events at 3 depths and 8 sites along the canal (n = 213) for 36 biogeochemical variables and V. vulnificus concentration using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of the hemolysin A gene (vvhA). The best multiple linear regression model of V. vulnificus concentration, explaining 80% of variation, included only six predictors: 5-day average rainfall preceding water sampling, daily maximum air temperature, water temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and two metrics of humic dissolved organic matter (DOM). We show how real-time predictions of V. vulnificus concentration can be made using these models applied to the time series of water quality measurements from the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) as well as the PacIOOS plume model based on the Waikiki Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) products. These applications highlight the importance of including DOM variables in predictive modeling of V. vulnificus and the influence of rain events in elevating nearshore concentrations of V. vulnificus. Long-term climate model projections of locally downscaled monthly rainfall and air temperature were used to predict an overall increase in V. vulnificus concentration of approximately 2-to 3-fold by 2100. Improving these predictive models of microbial populations is critical for management of waterborne pathogen risk exposure, particularly in the wake of a changing global climate.