Optimal Economic Growth and Uncertainty: The No Discounting Case
Optimal Economic Growth and Uncertainty: The No Discounting Case
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最优经济增长和不确定性：无贴现情况
DOI：
10.2307/2525969
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发表时间：
1973
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Leonard J. Mirman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Brock;Leonard J. Mirman
单部门最优经济增长模型的基石是最优消费政策稳态解的存在性和稳定性。最优消费政策是控制经济动态的微分方程组鞍点解的稳定分支。这种类型的行为的例子可以在卡斯[2]和Koopmans [4]中找到。然而，稳定的分支解决方案是一个刀刃政策的意义上说，任何扰动，无论多么小，在不稳定和最终湮灭的结果。(This当扰动后遵守欧拉条件时，现象成立）。由于观测误差或缺乏对精确生产函数的了解，可能会出现小的扰动。似乎有理由认为，各种人为错误都会影响决策变量。因此，除非对现在和未来的所有变量都有完全确定的了解，除非所有决策都是准确的，否则单部门确定型经济充其量只能导致次优的消费和投资政策。如果由于聚合误差而产生的产量不确定，人们会期望类似的不稳定性结果。此外，应该预料到，规划者对未来的了解并不那么确定。既然这似乎是不可能的，面对未来的不确定性，
The cornerstone of one-sector optimal economic growth models is the existence and stability of a steady-state solution for optimal consumption policies. The optimal consumption policy is the stable branch of the saddle point solution of the system of differential equations governing the dynamics of the economy. Examples of this type of behavior can be found in Cass [2] and Koopmans [4]. However, the stable branch solution is a knife-edge policy in the sense that any perturbation, no matter how small, results in instability and eventual annihilation. (This phenomenon is true when the Euler conditions are adhered to after the perturbation). Small pertubations might occur due to observation errors or the lack of knowledge of the exact production functions. It seems reasonable to expect that all sorts of human errors influence decision variables. Hence unless perfect knowledge of all variables, present and future, were known with complete certainty, and unless all decisions were made with exactness, economies of the one-sector deterministic type would lead at best to suboptimal consumption and investment policies. One would expect analogous instability results if production due to aggregation error, say, were not known with certainty. Moreover, it should be expected that planners know the future with something less than certainty. Since it seems impossible, in the face of uncertainty of the future,