Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States
Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1152538
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发表时间：
2008-02-22
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Dettinger, Michael D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnett, Tim P.;Pierce, David W.;Dettinger, Michael D.
观测表明，美国西部的水文循环在20世纪后半叶发生了显著变化。我们提出了一项区域，多变量气候变化检测和归因研究，使用全球气候模型强制的高分辨率水文模型，重点关注已经影响到这个人口众多且不断增长的主要干旱地区的变化。结果表明，1950 ~ 1999年间，河流流量、冬季气温和积雪量的气候相关趋势中有60%以上是人为因素引起的。这些结果对研究变量和方法的扰动具有鲁棒性。他们与之前的工作一起预示着美国西部即将到来的供水危机。
Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.