Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection
Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection
复制标题
DOI：
10.1017/s0950268805005054
复制
发表时间：
2006-04-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Karlberg, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, K;Fong, DYK;Karlberg, J
这项研究旨在找出2003年3月11日至5月22日期间香港出现、预防和消除严重急性呼吸系统综合症的因素。采用结构化多阶段回归分析方法估计天气、时间和医院感染的交互效应的潜在影响。在疫情期间气温较低的日子，SARS日发病率增加的风险比气温较高的日子高18.18倍（95%置信区间5.6-58.8）。在疫情期间，每天新增病例总数可能会以平均每10天2.8例的速度自然减少。感染医院工作人员与重症监护病房（ICU）患者的倍增效应和重症监护病房中SARS患者的比例可能分别增加SARS在社区更大流行的风险。医院提供防护装备也是预防SARS感染的一个非常重要的因素。SARS的传播似乎依赖于季节温度变化和医院感染的倍增效应。SARS似乎也会随着时间的推移而自然消退。
The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold (95% confidence interval 5.6-58.8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2.8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.