What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?
What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1071-x
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Holt J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Saux Picart S;Allen JI;Butenschön M;Artioli Y;de Mora L;Wakelin S;Holt J
富营养化是河流和其他来源的人为营养物输入增加造成的一个过程，其后果可能包括藻类生物量增加、浮游生物群落组成发生变化以及海底附近氧气耗尽。在《海洋战略框架指令》的范围内，确定了评估生态系统富营养化状况的指标（和相关阈值）。需要大型观测数据库（现场）来适当评估富营养化状况。海洋流体动力学/生态系统模型提供了具有广泛生态系统特征的连续场。在这方面使用这种模型有助于克服缺乏实地数据的问题，并为基于生态系统的管理和决策者提供一个强有力的工具。在这里，我们展示了一种方法，使用模型输出和原位数据相结合，以评估北海沿海地区的富营养化风险。计算了过去和现在以及未来不同情景下的富营养化风险。这使我们能够评估目前的风险及其对人为压力和气候变化的敏感性。模型敏感性研究表明，北海沿海沃茨可能更敏感的人为河流负荷比气候变化在不久的将来（到2040年）。
Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).