A new method of predicting US and state-level cancer mortality counts for the current calendar year
A new method of predicting US and state-level cancer mortality counts for the current calendar year
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DOI：
10.3322/canjclin.54.1.30
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发表时间：
2004-01-01
影响因子：
254.7
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tiwari, RC;Ghosh, K;Feuer, EJ
40多年来，每年1月，美国癌症协会（ACS）都会估计美国和各州在未来一年预计发生的癌症死亡总数。为了提高预测的准确性，美国国家癌症研究所和ACS的研究人员开发并测试了一种新的预测方法。新方法首次用于2004年癌症统计和2004年癌症事实与数字中的死亡率预测。作者介绍了以前的ACS方法和新的状态空间方法（SSM）的概念概述，并审查了严格测试的结果，以确定哪种方法提供了更准确的预测从1997年到1999年观察到的癌症死亡人数。使用平方偏差（预测值减去观察值的平方）比较方法的准确性，用于每个癌症部位的预测，以及所有癌症部位的组合。在国家水平上，两种方法的每一个癌症部位的平方偏差并不总是较低，但SSM的平均平方偏差（癌症部位、年份和性别的平均值）显著低于ACS方法。在1997年至1999年期间，ACS估计的死亡人数通常大于所有癌症部位合并和几个主要癌症部位的观察人数，可能是因为ACS方法对20世纪90年代早期和中期几个主要癌症部位的癌症死亡率（和相关计数）的近期变化不太敏感。新方法的准确性提高对于前列腺癌尤其明显，前列腺癌的死亡率在20世纪80年代末和90年代初发生了巨大变化。在州一级，这两种方法的准确性相当。根据这些结果，ACS选择使用新方法来预测国家和州一级的癌症死亡人数。
Every January for more than 40 years, the American Cancer Society (ACS) has estimated the total number of cancer deaths that are expected to occur in the United States and individual states in the upcoming year. In a collaborative effort to improve the accuracy of the predictions, investigators from the National Cancer Institute and the ACS have developed and tested a new prediction method. The new method was used to create the mortality predictions for the first time in Cancer Statistics, 2004 and Cancer Facts & Figures 2004. The authors present a conceptual overview of the previous ACS method and the new state-space method (SSM), and they review the results of rigorous testing to determine which method provides more accurate predictions of the observed number of cancer deaths from the years 1997 to 1999. The accuracy of the methods was compared using squared deviations (the square of the predicted minus observed values) for each of the cancer sites for which predictions are published as well as for all cancer sites combined. At the national level, the squared deviations were not consistently lower for every cancer site for either method, but the average squared deviations (averaged across cancer sites, years, and sex) was substantially lower for the SSM than for the ACS method. During the period 1997 to 1999, the ACS estimates of deaths were usually greater than the observed numbers for all cancer sites combined and for several major individual cancer sites, probably because the ACS method was less sensitive to recent changes in cancer mortality rates (and associated counts) that occurred for several major cancer sites in the early and mid 1990s. The improved accuracy of the new method was particularly evident for prostate cancer, for which mortality rates changed dramatically in the late 1980s and early 1990s. At the state level, the accuracy of the two methods was comparable. Based on these results, the ACS has elected to use the new method for the annual prediction of the number of cancer deaths at the national and state levels.