Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate
Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate
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DOI：
10.1177/0963721414534257
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Chen, Eva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tetlock, Philip E.;Mellers, Barbara A.;Chen, Eva
预测锦标赛是公平竞争的竞争，它揭示了哪些个人、团队或算法对哪些主题产生了更准确的概率估计。这篇文章描述了一场大规模的地缘政治锦标赛，它测试了关于提高判断准确性的可行性和最佳方法的相互冲突的观点。本届锦标赛的获胜者良好判断项目的表现超过了简单的人群平均水平，原因是：(A)设计了新形式的认知去偏见训练，(B)激励团队和预测市场的严格思维，(C)将顶尖人才输送到精英协作团队中，这些团队由“超级预测者”组成，以及(D)微调聚合算法，以便从人群中提取更大的智慧。在两极分化的科学和政策辩论中，锦标赛有可能开放封闭的思想，提高断言与证据的比率。
Forecasting tournaments are level-playing-field competitions that reveal which individuals, teams, or algorithms generate more accurate probability estimates on which topics. This article describes a massive geopolitical tournament that tested clashing views on the feasibility of improving judgmental accuracy and on the best methods of doing so. The tournament's winner, the Good Judgment Project, outperformed the simple average of the crowd by (a) designing new forms of cognitive-debiasing training, (b) incentivizing rigorous thinking in teams and prediction markets, (c) skimming top talent into elite collaborative teams of "super forecasters," and (d) fine-tuning aggregation algorithms for distilling greater wisdom from crowds. Tournaments have the potential to open closed minds and increase assertion-to-evidence ratios in polarized scientific and policy debates.