Cancer Risk in Nodules Detected at Follow-Up Lung Cancer Screening CT.
Cancer Risk in Nodules Detected at Follow-Up Lung Cancer Screening CT.
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DOI:
10.2214/ajr.21.26927
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发表时间:
2022-04
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Nodules may have different lung cancer risks when new on follow-up CT versus when present on an earlier CT (“existing” nodules). Diameter-based Lung-RADS and volume-based NELSON categories have shown variable performance in nodule risk assessment. To assess Lung-RADS and NELSON classifications for nodules detected on follow-up lung cancer screening CT examinations. This retrospective study included 185 patients (100 women, 85 men; median age, 66 years) who underwent lung cancer screening CT examinations for which a prior CT was available. Stratified random sampling was performed to enrich the sample with suspicious nodules, yielding 50, 45, 47, 30, and 13 nodules with Lung-RADS categories 2, 3, 4A, 4B, and 4X, respectively. Lung-RADS categories were recorded from clinical reports. Nodules’ linear measurements were extracted from clinical reports to generate Lung-RADS categories using strict criteria. Two radiologists used a semiautomated tool to obtain nodule volumes, which were used to generate NELSON categories. Lung cancer risk was assessed. ROC analysis was performed. Percentages were weighted by Lung-RADS category frequencies in the underlying screening cohort. Twenty-nine cancers were diagnosed. Weighted cancer risk was 5% for new nodules, 1% for stable existing nodules, and 44% for growing existing nodules. No clinical category 2 nodule was cancer. Using strict Lung-RADS, 34 nodules, including 7 cancers, were downgraded to category 2. AUC for cancer was 0.96 for clinical Lung-RADS, 0.81 for strict Lung-RADS, 0.71–0.84 for NELSON (two readers), and 0.89 for nodule diameter. Clinical Lung-RADS achieved weighted sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 85% in the entire sample, 100% and 41% in new nodules, and 100% and 94% in existing nodules. Optimal diameter threshold was 8 mm for existing nodules, versus 6 mm for new nodules. Lung-RADS, as applied by radiologists in clinical practice, achieved excellent performance on follow-up screening examinations. Strict Lung-RADS downgraded some cancers to category 2. Volumetric assessments had weaker performance than clinical Lung-RADS. New nodules warrant smaller size thresholds than existing nodules. The findings provide insight into radiologists’ management of nodules detected on follow-up screening examinations.