Introducing detailed land-based mitigation measures into a computable general equilibrium model
Introducing detailed land-based mitigation measures into a computable general equilibrium model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.093
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发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
T. Hasegawa;S. Fujimori;T. Masui;Y. Matsuoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Hasegawa;S. Fujimori;T. Masui;Y. Matsuoka
通过将可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型与自下而上型技术模型相结合，提出了一种新的针对农业、林业和土地利用变化部门的气候变化缓解评估方法。CGE模式涵盖整个经济市场，但包括对缓解措施的粗略描述，而自下而上类型的技术模式考虑到个别缓解措施的减排成本和缓解影响，但只侧重于少数几个部门。耦合框架使我们能够将相关条件联系起来，并补充每一种模式的缺点。作为检验，我们将我们的方法应用于印度尼西亚，印尼已经制定了2020年的国家温室气体减排目标。印尼温室气体排放的很大一部分来自土地使用部门。我们评估了有和没有耦合自下而上类型模型的CGE模型之间的建模行为的差异。两个主要结论是：1)耦合CGE估计的消费损失(1.2%)大于非耦合模型估计的损失(0.5%)，这是因为自下而上模型估计的减排量小于独立CGE的估计；以及2)印度尼西亚实现2020年前减排目标造成的消费损失强烈依赖于减排成本和可用于减排措施的土地面积的假设。
We propose a new climate change mitigation assessment method focusing on agriculture, forestry, and land-use change sectors by coupling the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a bottom-up type technology model. The CGE model covers the entire economic market, but includes a rough description of mitigation measures, whereas the bottom-up type technology model takes into account abatement cost and mitigation effects of individual mitigation measures, but only focuses on a few sectors. The coupled framework enables us to connect relevant conditions and to complement the shortcomings of each model. As a test, we applied our method to Indonesia, which has set a national greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2020. A large proportion of Indonesia's greenhouse gas emissions are from the land-use sector. We assessed the differences in modeling behaviors between the CGE models with and without coupling the bottom-up type model. The two primary findings were: 1) consumption loss estimated by the coupled CGE (1.2%) was larger than the loss estimated by the uncoupled model (0.5%), because the emission reduction estimated by the bottom-up model was less than the standalone CGE's estimate; and 2) consumption loss caused by achieving the reduction target by 2020 in Indonesia strongly depends on the assumption of mitigation costs and available land area for the emission reduction measures.