Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations
Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00719
复制
发表时间：
2020-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Wehby, George L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lyu, Wei;Wehby, George L.
大多数州在缓解2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行时颁布了就地避难令。新出现的证据表明，这些命令减少了COVID-19病例。使用从2020年3月开始到5月15日的不同日期的数据，我们使用事件研究模型研究了就地安置订单对COVID-19死亡和住院的每日增长率的影响。我们发现，就地安置命令在颁布后近三周内降低了每日死亡率增长率，并在颁布后两周内降低了每日住院率增长率。在法案颁布42天后，每日死亡率增长率下降了6.1个百分点。预测表明，到5月15日，在42个州加上华盛顿，华盛顿特区，可能避免多达25万至37万人死亡，有全州范围内的避难命令42天后，在19个有就地安置命令的州和3个没有就地安置命令但有住院数据的州，每日住院增长率下降了8.4个百分点。这一证据表明，就地安置命令有效降低了COVID-19死亡和住院的每日增长率。
Most states enacted shelter-in-place orders when mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Emerging evidence indicates that these orders have reduced COVID-19 cases. Using data starting at different dates in March and going through May 15, 2020, we examined the effects of shelter-in-place orders on daily growth rates of both COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, using event study models. We found that shelter-in-place orders reduced both the daily mortality growth rate nearly three weeks after their enactment and the daily growth rate of hospitalizations two weeks after their enactment. After forty-two days from enactment, the daily mortality growth rate declined by up to 6.1 percentage points. Projections suggest that as many as 250,000-370,000 deaths were possibly averted by May 15 in the forty-two states plus Washington, D.C., that had statewide shelter-in-place orders. The daily hospitalization growth rate examined in nineteen states with shelter-in-place orders and three states without them that had data on hospitalizations declined by up to 8.4 percentage points after forty-two days. This evidence suggests that shelter-in-place orders have been effective in reducing the daily growth rates of COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations.