USE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD IN DISEASE MONITORING WITH 2 DEPENDENT SOURCES
USE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD IN DISEASE MONITORING WITH 2 DEPENDENT SOURCES
复制标题
DOI：
10.1097/00001648-199501000-00009
复制
发表时间：
1995-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
BRENNER, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BRENNER, H
在流行病学监测中，越来越多地采用捕获-再捕获技术来纠正确定不足的病例。基本的双源捕获-再捕获方法的一个关键假设是源的独立性，这在实践中经常被违反。本文定量比较了捕获-再捕获方法和传统的配准方法在具有两个相依源的疾病监测中的性能。如果来源是负相关的，传统的登记方法对病例的低估转化为捕获-重新捕获方法对病例数量的高估。在某些情况下，这种高估可能是极端的。因此，如果负的来源依赖令人担忧，则不鼓励应用捕获重新捕获方法。在其他情况下，捕获-再捕获方法可能是纠正案件确定不足的宝贵工具。尽管如果来自两个来源的通知都是正相关的，这种纠正仍然不完美，但对病例数量的低估通常比传统登记方法要轻得多。我举例说明了广泛的登记方案的结果，并提供了基于人群的癌症登记的经验例子。我还讨论了在捕获-重新捕获研究的设计和分析中可以将来源依赖程度降至最低的策略。
Capture-recapture techniques are employed increasingly to correct for underascertainment of cases in epidemiologic surveillance. A key assumption of the basic two-source capture-recapture method is the independence of sources, which is often violated in practice. This paper provides a quantitative comparison of the performance of the capture-recapture method and the traditional registration approach in disease monitoring with two dependent sources. If sources are negatively dependent, underascertainment of cases by the traditional registration approach is transformed into overestimation of case numbers with the capture-recapture method. This overestimation can be extreme under certain conditions. Application of the capture recapture method is therefore discouraged if negative source dependence is of concern. In other situations, the capture-recapture method can be a valuable tool to correct for underascertainment of cases. Although the correction remains imperfect if notifications from both sources are positively dependent, underestimation of case numbers is typically much less severe than with the traditional registration approach. I illustrate the findings for a broad range of registration scenarios and provide empirical examples from population-based cancer registration. I also discuss strategies that may minimize the degree of source dependence in the design and analysis of capture-recapture studies.