Climate changes of the twentieth through twenty-first centuries simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3
Climate changes of the twentieth through twenty-first centuries simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3
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MRI-CGCM2.3 模拟的二十世纪到二十一世纪的气候变化
DOI：
10.2467/mripapers.56.9
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
昭雄 鬼頭
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
誠史 行本;彰子 野田;貴雄 内山;昌司 楠;昭雄 鬼頭
利用最新版本的MRI气候模式MRI-CGCM 2.3进行了20世纪历史气候变化和21世纪情景的相关实验。该模式再现了20世纪世纪全球平均地表气温的变化，与观测趋势的年代际变化以及与目前与工业化前水平相比的0.5°C的总体平均地表气温升高情况令人满意地一致。在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）《排放情景特别报告》（SRES）情景A1 B的实验中，全球平均SAT在世纪末上升2.4°C。通过与观测资料的比较，验证了世纪后期模拟趋势的空间结构，表明模式在各个大气场与观测趋势具有合理的一致性。21世纪的大多数模拟变化所揭示的空间模式与20世纪后期出现的趋势相似。模拟的海平面气压（SLP）在两个半球的趋势模式承担相似的观测趋势，与每个空间结构让人想起的环形模式在北方和南半球（NAM和SAM）。这些SLP的趋势模式是一致的，在SAT，降水，纬向平均纬向风场的趋势，在NAM和SAM。预计这些领域的连贯趋势结构将在二十一世纪气候变化中得到加强。文中还描述了与这些大气变化有关的海洋和海冰的变化。
Experiments related to twentieth century historical climate changes and the twenty-first century scenario are performed with the latest version of the MRI climate model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The model reproduces globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) variations in the twentieth century with satisfactory agreement with interdecadal changes of the observed trend, as well as with the overall SAT increase of 0.5°C at the present-day compared to the pre-industrial level. The globally averaged SAT rises 2.4°C in the late twenty-first century in the experiment for scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The spatial structures of the simulated trends for the late twentieth century are validated in various atmospheric fields through comparisons with observed data, which indicate that the model demonstrates reasonable agreement with the observed trend in each field. Most of the simulated changes for the twenty-first century reveal spatial patterns similar to those in the trends that appeared in the late twentieth century. The simulated trend patterns of the sea-level pressure (SLP) in both hemispheres bear a resemblance to the observed trends, with each spatial structure reminiscent of the annular modes in the northern and southern hemispheres (NAM and SAM). These SLP trend patterns are consistent with the trends in the SAT, precipitation, and zonal mean zonal wind fields, as in the NAM and SAM. The coherent trend structures of these fields are projected to be enhanced in twenty-first century climate changes. Changes of ocean and sea-ice in association with these atmospheric changes are also described.
二十世纪气候模拟中的年代际北极涛动被视为内部变化和对外部强迫的响应
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Geophysical Research Letters 32
影响因子：
--
作者：
K.Kodera.;K.Shibata;N.A.Butchart et al.;Yuhji Kuroda;Kuroda,Y.;Kuroda,Y.;Kuroda,Y.,and K.Kodera;Kodera,K.,and Y.Kuroda;Kodera,K.;Yukimoto,S.,and K.Kodera
通讯作者：
Yukimoto,S.,and K.Kodera
影响因子：
--
作者：
誠史 行本;彰浩 野田;昭雄 鬼頭;正人 杉;佳照 北村;征宏 保坂;清孝 柴田;修平 前田;貴雄 内山
通讯作者：
誠史 行本;彰浩 野田;昭雄 鬼頭;正人 杉;佳照 北村;征宏 保坂;清孝 柴田;修平 前田;貴雄 内山