Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific
Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-14-00187.1
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发表时间：
2015-04
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
T. Shimura;N. Mori;H. Mase
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Shimura;N. Mori;H. Mase
摘要海洋表面波的变化对海岸环境产生了各种各样的影响。为了评估海洋表面波浪气候的未来变化，在以前的研究中已经模拟了几个全球波浪气候的未来预测。然而，以前很少有人讨论未来波浪气候变化背后的原因以及预测之间的差异。本研究的目的是估计未来平均波浪气候的变化和波浪气候对海表温度条件的敏感性，通过具体观察海表温度的空间变化来了解波浪气候变化背后的机制。在海温集合实验的基础上，对MRI-AGCM3.2海面风强迫下的波浪气候进行了一系列预估。结果显示，未来年平均波高的变化幅度在±0.3米左右。北太平洋西部夏季波高的未来变化是受热带气旋的影响。
AbstractChanges in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of the wave climate to sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in an effort to understand the mechanism behind the wave climate changes by specifically looking at spatial SST variation. A series of wave climate projections forced by surface winds from the MRI-AGCM3.2 were conducted based on SST ensemble experiments. The results yield future changes in annual mean wave height that are within about ±0.3 m. The future changes in summertime wave height in the western North Pacific (WNP), which are influenced by tro...