The combination of interval forecasts in tourism
The combination of interval forecasts in tourism
复制标题
旅游区间预测的组合
DOI：
10.1016/j.annals.2019.01.010
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Liu, Anyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Gang;Wu, Doris Chenguang;Liu, Anyu
组合预测是提高旅游预测精度的有效途径。然而，经验证据仅限于点预测。鉴于区间预测可以提供更全面的信息，因此在决策时同时考虑点预测和区间预测是很重要的。本研究以香港旅游需求为实证案例，首次探讨两者的组合是否以及如何提高旅游需求的区间预测精度。文克勒评分被用来衡量区间预测的表现。实证结果表明，组合预测提高了不同预测水平下的旅游区间预测精度。这些发现为政府和行业从业者提供了产生准确区间预测的指导方针，有助于他们在实践中进行广泛的应用。本文还推出了旅游研究年鉴策划的旅游需求预测集合，这是该领域的特别研究精选。
Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice.This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecast, a special selection of research in this field.