"What Goes Up Must Come Down"-How Charts Influence Decisions to Buy and Sell Stocks
"What Goes Up Must Come Down"-How Charts Influence Decisions to Buy and Sell Stocks
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“上涨必然下跌”——图表如何影响买卖股票的决策
DOI：
10.1207/s15427579jpfm0403_2
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Karl Schneller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Mussweiler;Karl Schneller
五个实验考察了描绘过去股价的图表如何影响投资决策。我们预计投资者将使用图表中描绘的极端过去价格作为比较标准，以此作为吸收对未来价格预期的标准。因此，投资者应该预期，在图表中描绘的股票具有显著的高点，比在图表中描绘的股票的表现更好。因此，投资者应该更有可能买入，而不太可能卖出图表中显示的显著高点而不是低点的股票。五个实验的结果支持这一推理。无论投资者是私人投资者还是专业投资者，以及关于该股的背景信息是有限的还是丰富的，对未来价格的预期都被吸收为过去的极端价格。因此，当关键图表的特征是显著的高点比低点时，投资者买入更多，卖出更少。讨论了这些发现对比较过程在投资决策中所起的核心作用的影响。
Five experiments examine how charts depicting past stock prices influence investing decisions. We expected investors to use extreme past prices depicted in charts as comparison standards to which expectations about future prices are assimilated. Investors should thus expect stocks depicted in a chart with a salient high to perform better than stocks depicted in a chart with a salient low. And as a consequence, investors should be more likely to buy and less likely to sell stocks depicted in a chart with a salient high than a low. Results of five experiments support this reasoning. Whether investors are private or professional and whether background information about the stock was limited or abundant, expectations about future prices assimilated to extreme past prices. Consequently, investors buy more and sell less when the critical chart is characterized by a salient high than a low. The implications of these findings for the core role comparison processes play in investing decisions are discussed.