Rising Longevity, Fertility Dynamics, and R&D-based Growth
Rising Longevity, Fertility Dynamics, and R&D-based Growth
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寿命延长、生育动态和 R
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-018-0691-2
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Koichi Futagami and Kunihiko Konishi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Koichi Futagami;Kunihiko Konishi;Koichi Futagami and Kunihiko Konishi
本研究构建了一个包含内生生育率、死亡率和R&D活动的世代重叠模型。我们证明，该模型解释了发达国家观察到的生育率动态。当人均工资收入水平低或高时，这种收入的增加会提高生育率。当人均工资收入水平处于中等水平时，这种收入的增加会降低生育率。该模型还预测了观察到的人口增长和创新活动之间的关系。首先，人口增长率和技术进步都在增加，也就是说，这是一种正向关系。此后，人口增长率下降，技术进步速度上升，呈现负相关关系。
This study constructs an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, mortality, and R&D activities. We demonstrate that the model explains the observed fertility dynamics of developed countries. When the level of per capita wage income is either low or high, an increase in such income raises the fertility rate. When the level of per capita wage income is in the middle, an increase in such income decreases the fertility rate. The model also predicts the observed relationship between population growth and innovative activity. At first, both the rates of population growth and technological progress increase; that is, there is a positive relationship. Thereafter, the rate of population growth decreases but the rate of technological progress increases, showing a negative relationship.