Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate
Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate
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DOI：
10.1080/19452829.2020.1863026
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发表时间：
2020-12-24
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Subramanian, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philip, Minu;Ray, Debraj;Subramanian, S.
印度的 Covid-19 病死率 (CFR) 极低，截至撰写本文时约为 1.7%。世界平均比率要高得多。一些观察家指出，这种差异至少部分是由于印度的年轻化年龄分布造成的。我们使用 17 个比较国家的特定年龄死亡率，再加上印度的 Covid-19 病例分布，来“预测”印度的病死率。在大多数情况下，这些预测得出的数字甚至更低，这表明印度的病死率（如果有的话）是太高而不是太低。我们通过分解练习来补充分析，并且我们还考虑了病例发生率和死亡之间的时间滞后，以便在日益严重的大流行情况下获得更相关的视角。我们的工作强调了仔细测量和解释数据的重要性，并强调了因只关注病死率等总体统计数据而可能产生的错误自满的危险。
India's case fatality rate (CFR) under Covid-19 is strikingly low, around 1.7% at the time of writing. The world average rate is far higher. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India's younger age distribution. We use age-specific fatality rates from 17 comparison countries, coupled with India's distribution of Covid-19 cases, to "predict" India's CFR. In most cases, those predictions yield even lower numbers, suggesting that India's CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the analysis with a decomposition exercise, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death for a more relevant perspective under a growing pandemic. Our exercise underscores the importance of careful measurement and interpretation of the data, and emphasises the dangers of a misplaced complacency that could arise from an exclusive concern with aggregate statistics such as the CFR.