Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
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DOI：
10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843
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发表时间：
2020-05-04
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Tatem, Andrew J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lai, Shengjie;Ruktanonchai, Nick W.;Tatem, Andrew J.
2020年3月11日，世界卫生组织(世卫组织)宣布冠状病毒病2019(新冠肺炎)为大流行(1)。用于控制中国暴发的非药物干预策略似乎是有效的(2)，但仍需要定量研究来评估非药物干预及其时机的有效性(3)。在这里，使用新冠肺炎上的流行病学数据和人体运动的匿名数据(4，5)，我们开发了一个建模框架，使用日常旅行网络来模拟中国的不同爆发和干预情景。我们估计，截至2020年2月29日，内地中国共有114,325例新冠肺炎(四分位数范围为76,776-164,576)。如果没有非药物干预，我们预测到2020年2月29日，病例数量将增加67倍(四分位数范围为44-94倍)，我们发现不同干预措施的效果各不相同。我们估计，早期发现和隔离病例比限制旅行和减少接触者预防的感染更多，但非药物干预措施的组合取得了最强和最快的效果。根据我们的模型，如果社会疏远干预能够保持下去，从2020年2月17日起取消旅行限制并不会导致中国的病例增加，即使是在有限的水平上，个人之间的接触平均减少了25%，这种情况一直持续到4月底。这些发现提高了我们对非药物干预对新冠肺炎影响的理解，并将为世界各地的应对努力提供参考。中国构建的不同非药物干预对新冠肺炎传播影响的模型表明，快速实施综合干预的策略是最有效的。
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic(1). The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective(2), but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings(3). Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement(4,5), we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.