1st ACM SIGSPATIAL Workshop on Geo-Computational Thinking in Education (GeoEd 2019): Chicago, Illinois, USA - November 5, 2019
1st ACM SIGSPATIAL Workshop on Geo-Computational Thinking in Education (GeoEd 2019): Chicago, Illinois, USA - November 5, 2019
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第一届 ACM SIGSPATIAL 教育地理计算思维研讨会 (GeoEd 2019)：美国伊利诺伊州芝加哥 - 2019 年 11 月 5 日
DOI：
10.1145/3383653.3383657
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Dony, Coline
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Magdy, Amr;Dony, Coline
准确评估人为二氧化碳(CO2)排放量及其在大气、海洋和陆地生物圈之间的重新分配--“全球碳预算”--对于更好地理解全球碳循环、支持气候政策的制定和预测未来气候变化非常重要。在这里，我们描述了量化全球碳预算的五个主要组成部分及其不确定性的数据集和方法。化石二氧化碳排放量(EFF)基于能源统计数据和水泥生产数据，而土地利用变化排放量(ELUC)，主要是砍伐森林，基于土地利用和土地利用变化数据和记账模型。直接测量大气中的CO2浓度，并根据年变化量计算其增长率(GATM)。海洋CO2汇(SOCEAN)和陆源CO2汇(SOCEAN)由观测约束的全球过程模式估算。由此产生的碳收支失衡(BIM)，即估计的总排放量与估计的大气、海洋和陆地生物圈变化之间的差额，是对不完善的数据和对当代碳循环的理解的一种衡量。所有不确定度均报告为±1σ。在最近十年(2009年至2018年)，EFF9.5±0.5GTC yr−1，ELUC1.5±0.7GTC yr−1，GATM4.9±0.02GTC yr−1(2.3±0.01ppm yr−1)，SOCEAN 2.5±0.6GTC yr−1，Sland 3.2±0.6GTC yr−1，预算平衡BIM0.4GTC yr−1，表明高估了排放量和/或低估了汇。仅就2018年而言，EFF年的增长率约为2.1%，化石排放量增加到10.0GTC yr−1，历史上首次达到10GTC yr−1，ELUC为1.5±0.7GTC yr−1，人为二氧化碳排放总量为11.5±0.9GTC yr−1(42.5±3.3GTCO2)。同样在2018年，GATM5.1±0.2GTC yr−1(2.4ppm yr−1)，SOCEAN为2.6GTC yr−1，Sland为3.5±0.7GTC yr−1，BIM0.3GTC。2018年全球大气二氧化碳平均浓度达到407.38±0.1ppm。2019年前6-10个月的初步数据显示，基于中国、美国、欧盟和印度的国家排放预测以及根据世界其他地区最近经济碳强度变化修正的国内生产总值(GDP)预测，经济增长放缓+0.6%(范围为−0.2%至1.5%)。总体而言，全球碳预算五个组成部分的平均值和趋势在1959年至2018年期间得到了一致的估计，但在表示二氧化碳通量的半十年变化方面，仍存在高达1GTC yr−1的差异。对个别估计的详细比较和广泛观测的引入表明：(1)过去十年土地利用变化排放量的平均值和趋势没有达成共识，(2)关于热带北部陆地二氧化碳通量大小的不同方法之间的一致性持续较低，以及(3)热带以外的海洋模式对二氧化碳变异性的明显低估。这一活生生的数据更新记录了新的全球碳预算中使用的方法和数据集的变化，以及与该数据集以前的出版物(Le QuéréEtal.，2018a，b，2016,2015a，b，2014,2013)相比，在理解全球碳循环方面取得的进展。这项工作产生的数据可在https://doi.上获得Org/10.18160/gcp-2019年(Friedlingsteinet等人，2019年)。
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere–the “global carbon budget”–is important to better understand theglobal carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, andproject future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changesin concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrialCO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process modelsconstrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as±1σ. For the lastdecade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr− 1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr− 1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr− 1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr− 1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr− 1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr− 1, with a budgetimbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr− 1 indicating overestimated emissionsand/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF wasabout 2.1% and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr− 1, reaching 10 GtC yr− 1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr− 1, for total anthropogenicCO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr− 1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr− 1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr− 1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr− 1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr− 1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of+ 0.6%(range of− 0.2% to 1.5%) based on national emissions projections for China, theUSA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product correctedfor recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest ofthe world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the globalcarbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, butdiscrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr− 1 persist for the representation ofsemi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison amongindividual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observationsshows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissionsover the last decade,(2) a persistent low agreement between the differentmethods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northernextra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré etal., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated bythis work are available at https://doi. org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingsteinet al., 2019).