Epidemic and endemic cholera trends over a 33-year period in Bangladesh
Epidemic and endemic cholera trends over a 33-year period in Bangladesh
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DOI：
10.1086/341206
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发表时间：
2002-07-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Nizam, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Longini, IM;Yunus, M;Nizam, A
尽管近200年的研究，机制有助于维持地方性霍乱和周期性流行病的原因仍然知之甚少。为了调查这些模式，霍乱数据收集超过33年（1966-1998年）在孟加拉国的Matlab，进行了分析。时间滞后的自相关分层霍乱弧菌血清组，血清型和生物型。经典型和埃尔托型在1966年至1988年间交替出现，经典型在1988年消失，而O 139血清型在1993年首次出现。小川和稻叶血清型在整个时间内都在循环。自相关分析表明，稻叶和小川两种流行病在12个月后都发生了相同血清型的流行病。然而，仅在6个月后，Ogawa流行病也随之而来。因此，稻叶型的流行可能选择性地给予短期人群水平的免疫力，比小川型的免疫力持续更长的时间。这些观察结果表明，在霍乱疫苗设计中应最大限度地利用稻叶抗原。
Despite nearly 200 years of study, the mechanisms contributing to the maintenance of endemic cholera and the causes of periodic epidemics remain poorly understood. To investigate these patterns, cholera data collected over 33 years (1966-1998) in Matlab, Bangladesh, were analyzed. Time-lagged autocorrelations were stratified by Vibrio cholerae serogroup, serotype, and biotype. Both classical and El Tor biotypes alternated and persisted between 1966 and 1988; the classical biotype disappeared by 1988, and the O139 serogroup first appeared in 1993. Both the Ogawa and Inaba serotypes circulated the entire time. The autocorrelations revealed that both Inaba and Ogawa epidemics were followed 12 months later by epidemics of the same serotype. Ogawa epidemics, however, were also followed by further Ogawa epidemics only 6 months later. Thus, epidemics of Inaba may selectively confer short-term population-level immunity for a longer period than those of Ogawa. These observations suggest that the Inaba antigen should be maximized in cholera vaccine designs.