The role of interconnectivity in control of an Ebola epidemic.
The role of interconnectivity in control of an Ebola epidemic.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep29262
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发表时间：
2016-07-07
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Childs LM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blackwood JC;Childs LM
2013 年底至 2015 年期间，利比里亚、塞拉利昂和几内亚等几个西非国家经历了迄今为止最大规模的埃博拉疫情，发病率和死亡率都很高。大型城市人口中心的疫情爆发以及病原体在人群之间的传播加剧了疫情的蔓延。疫情期间没有已知的疫苗或药物，因此有效的疾病控制需要协调一致的努力，包括标准医疗和社区做法，例如住院、隔离和安全埋葬。由于地区互联互通，疫情控制不仅依赖于内部策略，还受到周边国家的影响。在本文中，我们使用确定性框架来研究两个人群之间的流动在旨在最大限度地减少埃博拉疫情范围的实践的总体成功中的作用。我们发现，即使人群之间进行少量混合，也有可能对全球范围内的流行病控制产生积极影响。
Several West African countries - Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea - experienced significant morbidity and mortality during the largest Ebola epidemic to date, from late 2013 through 2015. The extent of the epidemic was fueled by outbreaks in large urban population centers as well as movement of the pathogen between populations. During the epidemic there was no known vaccine or drug, so effective disease control required coordinated efforts that include both standard medical and community practices such as hospitalization, quarantine and safe burials. Due to the high connectivity of the region, control of the epidemic not only depended on internal strategies but also was impacted by neighboring countries. In this paper, we use a deterministic framework to examine the role of movement between two populations in the overall success of practices designed to minimize the extent of Ebola epidemics. We find that it is possible for even small amounts of intermixing between populations to positively impact the control of an epidemic on a more global scale.