Time Trends in Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Multimorbidity Not Only due to Aging: Data from General Practices and Health Surveys
Time Trends in Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Multimorbidity Not Only due to Aging: Data from General Practices and Health Surveys
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0160264
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发表时间：
2016-08-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hoeymans, Nancy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Oostrom, Sandra H.;Gijsen, Ronald;Hoeymans, Nancy
介绍慢性病和多发性硬化症是常见的，预计在未来几年将上升。本研究的目的是研究的时间趋势，在慢性病和多发性硬化症的患病率在2001年至2011年期间在荷兰，在何种程度上这可以归因于人口老龄化。1）2002-2011年期间在全国代表性全科医学网络中列出的患者的医疗记录，和2）2001-2011年期间的全国健康访谈调查。使用回归模型研究患病率随时间的趋势，结果年龄标准化后，年龄组的阳性率从34.9%上升到41.8%，2004-2011年全科医疗登记慢性病患病率从41.0%上升到46.6%，差异有统计学意义（P< 0.01）（p< 0.01）基于2001-2011年期间自我报告的疾病。多药耐药率分别从12.7%增加到16.2%（p< 0.01）和从14.3%增加到17.5%（p< 0.01）。人口老龄化解释了这些趋势的一部分：约五分之一的基础上，一般的做法数据，三分之一的慢性病和一半的趋势，为multimorrhosis的基础上健康surveys.ConclusionsThe慢性病和multimorrhosis的患病率在2001-2011年期间增加。人口老龄化只是增加的一部分原因，这意味着其他因素，如保健和与社会有关的发展，是造成这一增加的很大一部分原因。
IntroductionChronic diseases and multimorbidity are common and expected to rise over the coming years. The objective of this study is to examine the time trend in the prevalence of chronic diseases and multimorbidity over the period 2001 till 2011 in the Netherlands, and the extent to which this can be ascribed to the aging of the population.MethodsMonitoring study, using two data sources: 1) medical records of patients listed in a nationally representative network of general practices over the period 2002-2011, and 2) national health interview surveys over the period 2001-2011. Regression models were used to study trends in the prevalence-rates over time, with and without standardization for age.ResultsAn increase from 34.9% to 41.8% (p< 0.01) in the prevalence of chronic diseases was observed in the general practice registration over the period 2004-2011 and from 41.0% to 46.6% (p< 0.01) based on self-reported diseases over the period 2001-2011. Multimorbidity increased from 12.7% to 16.2% (p< 0.01) and from 14.3% to 17.5% (p< 0.01), respectively. Aging of the population explained part of these trends: about one-fifth based on general practice data, and one-third for chronic diseases and half of the trend for multimorbidity based on health surveys.ConclusionsThe prevalence of chronic diseases and multimorbidity increased over the period 2001-2011. Aging of the population only explained part of the increase, implying that other factors such as health care and society-related developments are responsible for a substantial part of this rise.